SWERTOSpace Weather / Tor Vergata

Solar activity & flare forecast

Tor Vergata Solar Physics · GOES/XRS · SDO/HMI

Cached dataObservation times in UTC

Global flare probability

Tor Vergata UTOV_r outlook · Chance of at least one flare

Region outlook →

D model

Polarity complexity

Magnetic polarity structure

M-class flare
97.3%
97.3%
X-class flare
26.0%
26.0%

R model

PIL-weighted magnetic flux

R parameter adapted for HMI

M-class flare
>99.9%
>99.9%
X-class flare
42.5%
42.5%

8 analyzed regions · Snapshot estimate
No flare timing prediction. Independent-region combination.

About this outlook →
Observed 10 Nov 2026 · 11:59 UTCStale data

The Sun now

SDO/HMI LOS magnetogram

HMI photospheric magnetic field in Gauss, with SHARP active-region boundaries
NegativeBLOS / GaussPositive
Current cycleSDO / HMI
Observed 11 Nov 2026 · 11:59 UTC
Latest X-ray level
B7.2GOES class
7.24e-07 W m⁻²
24 h peak activity
C9.5GOES class
Interval ends at latest observation
Active regions analyzed
8SHARP regions
UTOV_r magnetic diagnostics
Detected flares · 7 days
344candidates
Absolute peak ≥ C1.0

Tor Vergata active-region outlook 8

UTOV_r D and R diagnostics · Highest M-class probability first

Tor Vergata UTOV_r region diagnostics and separate D and R flare probabilities in percent. Snapshot estimates, with no flare timing prediction.
Region / HARPD Polarity complexitylog R HMI-adapted fluxM | DX | DM | RX | R
14566HARP 14160106.0496%26%93%23%
14572HARP 1418304.802%0%93%23%
14565HARP 1415514.6813%0%39%1%
UnassignedHARP 1418804.712%0%39%1%
UnassignedHARP 1419014.5813%0%39%1%
UnassignedHARP 1417604.142%0%9%0%
14570HARP 1416903.332%0%3%0%
UnassignedHARP 1417102.732%0%0%0%

D and R are separate UTOV_r models · Snapshot probabilities, no timing estimate Method notes

Observed 10 Nov 2026 · 11:59 UTCStale data

GOES/XRS irradiance

GOES X-ray Sensor

Stale data
Flare peaks / 1–8 Å
Flare markers require JavaScript.
GOES X-ray flux on a logarithmic W/m² scale against UTC time
Observed 10 Nov 2026 · 23:59 UTC
CSV

Log scale / W/m² / UTC Peak-preserving display / Full-resolution analysis

GOES/XRS flare detections 344

Absolute peak class / Last 7 days

Detected flare candidates sorted by peak time, newest first. All times UTC. Flux W/m²; fluence J/m².
GOES peakPeak time / UTCPeak / W/m²Δ classFluence / J/m²Event
C2.42026-11-10 20:34:002.45e-06C1.12.53e-03Complete
C1.22026-11-10 20:22:001.26e-06B1.47.91e-04Complete
C1.12026-11-10 20:11:001.11e-06A6.33.25e-04Complete
C1.22026-11-10 19:52:001.24e-06A5.75.11e-04Complete
C1.22026-11-10 19:44:001.23e-06A4.44.36e-04Complete
C1.22026-11-10 19:35:001.24e-06A7.48.71e-04Complete
C2.12026-11-10 18:19:002.19e-06B2.93.09e-03Complete
C1.92026-11-10 18:07:001.91e-06C1.01.01e-03Complete
C1.02026-11-10 17:41:001.09e-06B2.41.23e-03Complete
C1.12026-11-10 17:00:001.18e-06B2.71.36e-03Complete
C1.02026-11-10 15:00:001.07e-06A5.83.75e-04Complete
C1.32026-11-10 14:32:001.39e-06A2.02.49e-04Complete
C1.92026-11-10 14:07:001.94e-06B4.91.06e-03Complete
C1.42026-11-10 13:55:001.49e-06A5.04.41e-04Complete
C2.42026-11-10 13:34:002.42e-06A3.22.88e-04Complete
C2.82026-11-10 13:28:002.83e-06C1.22.54e-03Complete
C1.92026-11-10 13:06:001.92e-06B6.51.84e-03Complete
C1.22026-11-10 12:53:001.27e-06B3.49.99e-04Complete
C1.22026-11-10 12:18:001.25e-06B4.41.89e-03Complete
C1.12026-11-10 11:28:001.13e-06A2.12.02e-04Complete
C8.62026-11-10 10:02:008.69e-06C5.71.44e-02Complete
C2.92026-11-10 09:46:002.94e-06B4.01.18e-03Complete
C2.72026-11-10 09:37:002.72e-06B1.19.59e-04Complete
C2.72026-11-10 09:31:002.71e-06C1.81.72e-03Complete
C9.52026-11-10 08:34:009.53e-06C8.31.05e-02Complete
C1.42026-11-10 07:58:001.49e-06B4.61.85e-03Complete
C2.32026-11-10 07:05:002.39e-06B3.41.74e-03Complete
C2.12026-11-10 06:56:002.12e-06B6.09.14e-04Complete
C1.82026-11-10 06:39:001.87e-06A9.96.57e-04Complete
C1.72026-11-10 06:31:001.76e-06B2.85.85e-04Complete
C1.52026-11-10 06:24:001.55e-06B4.59.97e-04Complete
C1.12026-11-10 06:06:001.18e-06A9.61.16e-03Complete
C1.02026-11-10 05:52:001.10e-06A7.14.50e-04Complete
C1.22026-11-10 05:36:001.25e-06B1.41.20e-03Complete
C1.32026-11-10 05:15:001.32e-06B3.01.30e-03Complete
C1.12026-11-10 05:01:001.16e-06A5.24.10e-04Complete
C1.12026-11-10 04:54:001.14e-06A2.02.03e-04Complete
C1.12026-11-10 04:48:001.14e-06B1.85.22e-04Complete
C2.02026-11-10 04:16:002.02e-06A2.63.62e-04Complete
C2.92026-11-10 04:04:002.97e-06B2.81.02e-03Complete
C2.72026-11-10 04:00:002.71e-06B9.21.37e-03Complete
C1.92026-11-10 03:46:001.90e-06B1.58.85e-04Complete
C2.02026-11-10 03:37:002.01e-06A6.04.75e-04Complete
C2.32026-11-10 03:30:002.38e-06C1.31.41e-03Complete
C1.92026-11-10 02:51:001.97e-06B4.87.04e-04Complete
C1.72026-11-10 02:39:001.77e-06B1.41.12e-03Complete
C1.62026-11-10 02:22:001.65e-06B2.21.65e-03Complete
C1.82026-11-10 01:45:001.86e-06B6.32.61e-03Complete
C1.32026-11-10 01:17:001.36e-06B6.29.04e-04Complete
C3.02026-11-09 23:49:003.07e-06C1.83.72e-03Complete
C1.32026-11-09 23:33:001.37e-06B1.03.96e-04Complete
C1.72026-11-09 23:27:001.75e-06B8.49.56e-04Complete
C1.42026-11-09 21:14:001.46e-06B2.96.21e-04Complete
C1.22026-11-09 21:07:001.23e-06A2.22.19e-04Complete
C1.22026-11-09 20:58:001.25e-06A5.66.61e-04Complete
C1.52026-11-09 20:16:001.57e-06B2.31.34e-03Complete
C1.32026-11-09 19:59:001.32e-06B1.06.95e-04Complete
C1.52026-11-09 19:49:001.52e-06B4.23.10e-04Complete
C1.12026-11-09 19:46:001.10e-06B2.99.18e-04Complete
C3.22026-11-09 18:08:003.30e-06C2.33.20e-03Complete
C5.22026-11-09 17:14:005.22e-06C4.29.09e-03Complete
C1.12026-11-09 16:08:001.19e-06A5.03.51e-04Complete
C2.72026-11-09 15:09:002.79e-06A9.51.81e-03Complete
C2.72026-11-09 15:01:002.71e-06B1.61.90e-03Complete
C5.32026-11-09 14:26:005.38e-06C4.28.37e-03Complete
C1.22026-11-09 13:57:001.25e-06B3.11.24e-03Complete
C1.12026-11-09 13:30:001.17e-06B1.62.63e-04Complete
C1.22026-11-09 13:16:001.27e-06B5.11.75e-03Complete
C1.02026-11-09 11:54:001.02e-06B2.18.23e-04Complete
C1.22026-11-09 11:18:001.24e-06B5.32.93e-03Complete
C1.02026-11-09 09:28:001.02e-06B2.62.52e-04Complete
C1.02026-11-09 09:08:001.07e-06B1.21.20e-04Complete
C2.02026-11-09 08:59:002.04e-06B9.66.72e-04Complete
C1.42026-11-09 08:45:001.44e-06B2.25.57e-04Complete
C1.22026-11-09 08:41:001.23e-06A4.11.46e-04Complete
C1.32026-11-09 08:33:001.34e-06A2.52.39e-04Complete
C1.32026-11-09 08:28:001.33e-06B3.21.16e-03Complete
C1.12026-11-09 08:02:001.11e-06B3.51.02e-03Complete
C1.12026-11-09 06:30:001.17e-06B1.93.84e-04Complete
C1.02026-11-09 06:25:001.01e-06B1.83.32e-04Complete
C1.12026-11-09 05:58:001.19e-06B1.85.32e-04Complete
C1.12026-11-09 05:55:001.12e-06A6.01.29e-04Complete
C1.02026-11-09 05:53:001.08e-06B2.01.76e-04Complete
C1.12026-11-09 05:37:001.17e-06A2.21.39e-04Complete
C1.22026-11-09 05:31:001.28e-06B1.75.01e-04Complete
C1.82026-11-09 05:21:001.86e-06B8.95.47e-04Complete
C1.02026-11-09 05:16:001.01e-06A4.11.78e-04Complete
C1.22026-11-09 05:08:001.21e-06B2.56.99e-04Complete
C1.02026-11-09 05:02:001.00e-06B1.43.93e-04Complete
C1.02026-11-09 04:51:001.02e-06B1.84.36e-04Complete
C1.02026-11-09 04:45:001.02e-06B1.22.33e-04Complete
C1.32026-11-09 04:29:001.38e-06B1.02.39e-04Complete
C3.12026-11-09 04:20:003.13e-06B9.47.76e-04Complete
C5.72026-11-09 04:10:005.77e-06C4.02.74e-03Complete
C2.32026-11-09 04:00:002.31e-06B5.96.93e-04Complete
C2.12026-11-09 03:50:002.11e-06B2.46.02e-04Complete
C2.42026-11-09 03:46:002.45e-06C1.51.07e-03Complete
C1.52026-11-09 03:27:001.58e-06B2.82.53e-04Complete
C1.32026-11-09 03:24:001.31e-06B5.44.37e-04Complete
C1.02026-11-09 03:03:001.05e-06B3.68.68e-04Complete

Showing 100 of 344 candidates / Full catalog available as CSV

Observed 10 Nov 2026 · 23:59 UTCStale data

Acquisition and processing

2 sources / 1 processor / 4 visualizers
Completed

GOES X-Ray

Solar X-ray flux from GOES satellites (1-8 Å and 0.5-4 Å)

Refresh cadence
30 min
Last successful run
11 Nov 2026 · 15:30 UTC
Run duration
10.21 s
Native-cadence analysis / Quality flags respected
Completed

HMI SHARPS

HMI magnetograms with SHARP active regions and nowcast metrics

Refresh cadence
12h
Last successful run
11 Nov 2026 · 15:06 UTC
Run duration
62.21 s
3h ingestion lag

Methodology and limitations

Detection criteria, parameter definitions, and model applicability.

Detection and probability models

GOES classes use the absolute 1–8 Å peak flux. Δ class shows the increase above the local background. Flare candidates use local extrema; they are not the official NOAA event catalog. Fluence uses actual elapsed time, in J/m².

R describes polarity-inversion-line weighted flux; D describes polarity complexity. Nowcast percentages come from the existing UTOV_r lookup model. R is the UTOV_r adaptation of the R parameter for HMI observations. D and R estimates are shown separately and describe the current snapshot; no flare occurrence time is predicted. Global estimates use 1 − ∏(1 − pᵢ) across the analyzed regions, assuming independent regions. A global percentage is withheld if any region lacks a valid probability. These estimates cover analyzed regions only; they are not an independently calibrated whole-Sun forecast.

Charts preserve peaks when reducing display points. Analysis and CSV downloads retain the native cadence. Data gaps are not interpolated.

“Current cycle” means the artifact matches the requested cache window. Observation and render times are separate. Older results remain visible with a freshness label.

References: NOAA classification glossary / SunPy / JSOC acquisition

Acquisition is scheduled. Cached results are rechecked every 60 s. Research model estimates · No flare timing prediction.

Cache loaded

Scientific plot

Observation times are UTC.